VSU Poll Finds Black Virginia Voters Firmly Back Democrats While Younger Voters Show Signs Of Change

Unlike traditional statewide polls, this poll focused on Black Virginians, examining how race, region, and representation influenced voter engagement.

A new statewide flash poll conducted by the John Mercer Langston Institute for African American Political Leadership (JMLI) at Virginia State University reveals that Black Virginians continue to strongly support Democratic candidates ahead of the 2025 statewide elections, scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2025.

The JMLI surveyed 817 respondents statewide for its Black Virginia Voter Flash Poll, making it one of the most comprehensive and culturally focused studies of Black voter sentiment in Virginia this election cycle.

Unlike many statewide polls that aggregate Black voters into small cross-tabs, JMLI’s Black Virginia Voter Poll centers Black perspectives as the primary data story. This research focuses on the intersection of race, region, and representation—tracking how political messages resonate within the Black electorate, not merely how it votes.

Key Findings

• Democratic support remains dominant. Black Virginians continue to anchor Virginia’s Democratic coalition, delivering nearly 95% support to Spanberger and Hashmi.
• Generational shifts are emerging. Among voters aged 18–24, Republican support climbs to between 5–8%, particularly for Attorney General Jason Miyares.
• Hampton Roads is the key battleground. The region shows the highest levels of cross-party activity among Black voters, consistent with growing diversity in political engagement among younger and working-class voters.
• Attorney General race shows greatest GOP traction. Miyares’ message of “law, order, and opportunity” resonates slightly more with younger male respondents.
• High engagement among Black voters. Only 1.7% of respondents said they do not plan to vote—signaling continued civic participation, especially around issues of education, housing, and social justice.

“What this data shows is both encouraging and instructive,” said Dr. Wes Bellamy, Chair of the VSU Department of Political Science and Executive Director for the John Mercer Langston Institute for Political Leadership. “Black Virginians remain deeply loyal to the Democratic Party—but younger voters are signaling a desire to be seen and heard on their own terms. That doesn’t mean they’re turning Republican; it means they’re evolving politically. The smart campaigns will engage that evolution rather than ignore it.”

Named after Virginia’s first Black congressman and lawyer, the John Mercer Langston Institute is a statewide center committed to advancing Black political engagement, civic education, and policy research. The Institute provides training, research, and polling that strengthen leadership pipelines and equip communities with data to drive equitable change.

Methodology

• Sample Size: 817 scaled respondents (817 verified original entries)
• Field Dates: October 16–27, 2025
• Method: Online voluntary response via Google Form distributed through JMLI’s academic and community networks
• Universe: Self-identified Black or African American voters residing in Virginia
• Weighting: None applied (results scaled proportionally for presentation)
• Regions Represented: Central Virginia, Hampton Roads, Northern Virginia, Southwest Virginia, Shenandoah/Western Virginia
• Margin of Error: N/A (nonprobability sample; directional insights)

Virginia State University’s mission is to graduate lifelong learners who are well-equipped to serve their communities as informed citizens, globally competitive leaders, and highly effective, ethical professionals. The University upholds that mission by encouraging students and all members of its community to participate in the democratic process and vote in the November 4 election.

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